ANÁLISE DA FREQUÊNCIA DE DIAS CONSECUTIVOS COM CHUVA NO MUNICÍPIO DA CIDADE DE QUELIMANE (1987-2016)

Abstract

This work seeks to analyze the frequency of consecutive rainy days in the City of Quelimane, for this purpose, daily time series of precipitation data from the model 14 / C, which consists of the observations made from 01:00 to 01: 00h the next day in the 1987-2016 period of the meteorological station of the Provincial Delegation of Meteorological Services of Zambézia of the National Institute of Meteorology. Two statistical methods (normalization and Kimbol's) and cartographic methods were applied in the treatment of the data, in the first case for determining the frequency and tabulation of data, in the second case for the elaboration of maps. The results achieved showed that in the rainy season in relation to the rainy days, the month of October is the one with low frequency (3 days), and the month of January the highest frequency (11 days), which during the years of analysis rainy days tend to decrease. The results of the analysis of consecutive days with rain, the month of October also presents less frequency (2 and 4 days), however the highest frequency is presented in the month of February (16 and 27 days), with an upward trend in recent years. It was concluded that the trend of monthly daily precipitation tends to decrease, except for the month of January which presents a slight increase, as for the trend of annual daily precipitation, the data show a decrease in precipitation mainly in the last decade (2006-2016). The return period for the highest daily maximum precipitation recorded in the historical series of 270.7 mm is 31 years.

Keywords: Consecutive days with rain, days with rain, frequency.